The Challenges of a Zero-Carbon Future
Photo by Jan Kopřiva on Unsplash
We are now eight years away from 2030, the deadline the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) set for cutting global carbon emissions in half. According to the IPCC, failure to do so means climate catastrophe.
The rate of growth of global emissions has slowed down since 2019, but a decade of data shows emissions only remained flat instead of dropping. Certainly, things aren’t looking good, as eight years seems gravely insufficient to overhaul a system that has relied on fossil fuels and other environmentally damaging practices for centuries.
Does this mean it’s too late? No. At least according to experts. The cost of renewable energy — solar and wind — has decreased significantly since 2010. Scientists say we have what we need in all sectors to hit the goal of 50% carbon emissions reduction by 2030.While it’s important that we remain hopeful, we also need to see what exactly are the challenges we will face.
What’s a ‘zero-carbon’ future?
Terms that are often thrown around in discussions about sustainability are carbon neutrality or net-zero emissions. To someone unfamiliar with these terms, they might mean the same as zero-carbon, but they’re not. To achieve a carbon-neutral future, the world only needs to balance out the carbon it releases into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, a zero-carbon future can only be achieved when the world doesn’t emit carbon at all. Manufacturing of goods, transportation, energy generation — every industry supporting human civilization would need to work without releasing greenhouse gasses.
Is zero-carbon attainable?
In a literal sense, no. There will always be some carbon released into the atmosphere, no matter what we do. But that’s not really what we need to achieve. Achieving a zero-carbon future means eliminating carbon emissions wherever possible while minimizing emissions for systems where they can’t be eliminated. This is attainable, but what do we need to overcome to get there?
Estimating the carbon budget
The IPCC’s 2030 deadline is based on the estimation of the world’s carbon budget. The carbon budget is the maximum volume of global carbon emissions that humanity can emit while still keeping global warming at a specified degree. The figure represented by the carbon budget is what allows governments and organizations to set realistic goals and create effective policies. Without the number provided by the carbon budget, we’re practically blind.
Calculation of the current carbon budget is based on a lot of figures and it’s not an easy task. The challenge is to keep calculating the carbon budget and to do so with improving accuracy. To put things in perspective, even the estimated carbon budget the IPCC used to set its 2030 deadline isn't 100% accurate. Researchers say it may be completely wrong and it’s possible we’ve already exhausted the budget.
Emissions figures change all the time and new technologies introduce more numbers into the mix. For the world to even get a chance at a zero-carbon future, it needs to develop a way to calculate the carbon budget easier and with better accuracy.
On a smaller scale, there needs to be more emphasis on the importance of carbon accounting. With goals set based on the carbon budget, organizations first need to know the exact volume of their emissions before they can implement decarbonization strategies and define goals.
Transitioning to electric
Cumulatively, the energy sector is accountable for around 73% of global greenhouse gas emissions. It’s a gigantic sector that affects virtually every industry and making it sustainable is a critical entry in our to-do list. But given how big the energy sector is, it will undoubtedly be a tough task. The decarbonization of the sector is ongoing but it will need to pick up the pace — decarbonize faster than ever before — if net-zero emissions by 2050 is to be possible.
More and more industries are shifting to electricity, given how the prices of solar and wind energy have dropped. However, the technology to allow deployment on a much larger scale is still in development. For instance, there are only a handful of fully electric ships worldwide, and while they have proven to be a success, none of them are viable for use in the long voyages that traditional ships take.
The primary challenge in decarbonizing the energy sector is to deploy zero-carbon technologies without driving up prices and decreasing accessibility. Some of the promising technologies in development today are hydrogen fuel cells and carbon capture and storage. The success of these technologies is likely to play a big role in the shift to electricity.
Read: UK Government Joins World's First Global Regulatory Body to Accelerate Green Energy Transition
More and more funding
We’ve set a goal and we’ve got projects in mind. But can we fund them? Financing is among the biggest challenges in achieving a zero-carbon future. Even without the threat of climate catastrophe, money has always been a complicated matter between countries. But this time around, failure to dish out the money can have devastating consequences.
Overhauling core systems and developing zero-carbon technologies requires an excessively huge amount of funding. According to McKinsey, the world needs to spend $3.5 trillion more, every year, just to make carbon neutrality by 2050 within reach. Considering this, developing countries can’t be expected to contribute financially.
But it’s not just about the money. It’s also about willingness. Countries with the highest GDP are among the highest contributors to carbon emissions, and most of them aren’t making good with their decarbonization promises.
Conclusion
Cutting carbon emissions in half by 2030 is already looking like the toughest challenge we have ever faced. But there is hope, and if we succeed in hitting our decarbonization targets, we’ll be in a better position to achieve a zero-carbon future. There are more hurdles than crunching numbers, shifting to electricity, and funding — but these are among the biggest ones on the road.
